Predictions so close!

Rounding to the nearest whole number, I nailed the popular vote percentages. I was off by no more than 3 electoral votes. I thought Ron Paul would get a few extra percentage points in Montana and deliver the state to Obama. Nebraska may give one electoral vote to Obama, so I may be just two off. I did think that Missouri, not Indiana, would go to Obama, but each has 11 electoral votes, so it didn't affect my EV prediction. I would also like to add that I pretty much nailed the 2006 election under my nom de plume Auguste Blanqui.

1. Barack the Community Organizer won this election. A Democratic nominee doesn't win North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia without a strong grassroots organization. Sarah Palin mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer, but that experience got him to the White House and sent Palin back to whatever hole she came from.

2. McCain was not doomed to fail just because he was a Republican and the economic crisis. According to the national exit polls, when asked whether McCain would continue Bush's policies, 48% of voters said yes and 48% said no. That's not a bad number for a Republican nominee. McCain lost voters in September when his response to the economic crisis was so erratic, confused, etc. I still say he would have been a real maverick and maybe won the election if he blasted the final bailout bill as a gift to special interests. "Barack's bailout," proof he's a tax-and-spend liberal suckered by the special interests--now that could have been a powerful message.

3. There was not a "John McCain of 2000" and a "John McCain of 2008." They are the same person, one without any principles, only ambition. He all but admitted that in his own book! How can you be in the Senate for over 25 years and not have a domestic policy?

4. I have a poodle for the Obama girls. Take my dog, please!

5. Joe the Plumber was the best poster boy for Republican workin' class support since Dicky Flat.

I am hopeful that some things will get done. Bill Clinton didn't get a lot done because he was too sensitive to criticism from within his cabinet, Congress, and the press. He also didn't lay the groundwork for Congressional support for his more visionary proposals. He thought he could dictate to the Democratic Congress. Obama is more strategic in his actions and doesn't seem to be as sensitive as Bill Clinton. I think he'll be a much better party and national leader.

This nonsense that we are a "center-right" nation is just, well, nonsense. We are a mish-mash of a lots of people with lots of different perspectives. Each few years, some of us vote, most of our votes are counted, and one candidate wins. To the extent that you can come up with an average representing the collective will of the people of the United States, it looks pretty left of center right now.

Obama won a mandate (whatever the heck that means). He earned some political capital in this election, and if he doesn't spend it now, the political bank is going to go bust and Obama will find that his account isn't FDIC-insured. Obama and Congressional Democrats will be better off fulfilling campaign promises than "moderating" their agenda.

Predictions

Obama, 53%, 367 electoral votes.
McCain, 46%, 171 EVs.

I anticipate voting lines in important areas to resemble South Africa, 1994. And not just full of black people. I mean just long.

I am also expecting the Obama GOTV effort to swing some toss up states (FL, NC, MO, MT) and keep small leads in other battleground states (OH and PA). I see IN as just too red. I don't want to be greedy.

The state polls are close, but McCain practically has to win them all. Anyhow, that's my fear. Good luck everyone! To you in Virginia, a little rain never hurt anyone.

Slicing the pie

I've been obsessed with the McCain's campaign to slice-and-dice the American people into good groups characterized as "pro-American" and bad groups characterized as "anti-American." "Real Virginia," "pro-American parts of the country," etc. Meanwhile Obama has a unifying vision, which generally does better in Presidential elections.

The slice-and-dice view of the country has been out there for a long time. It's sometimes called the "paranoid style" of American politics. This view see conspiracies everywhere. It has often been directed to Jews, but now it's characterized by Islamophobia. Are Muslims the new Jews?

George W. Bush's November 6, 2001 address to a joint session of Congress rekindled this spirit and set the Republican Party on a self-destructive path when disagreement over Iraq or other issues is tantamount to treason. Actually, not tantamount to treason, but actual treason. In Bush's 2001 speech, he declared: "Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. (Applause.)"

At the time, I assumed that he meant that other countries had to decide whether they were with us or against us. The Republican Party and the right wing applied it to the United States as well. To them, Americans, too, are either for or against "us."

Now the Democrats look like they're on the verge of controlling Congress and the White House. The hysteria we see is the wingnut freak out that a black socialist terrorist Muslim liberal elitist, all of which are disqualifications for being one of "us," may actually become President. According to the logic of the "with us or against us" crowd, the President will be against us.

What the hell do these folks do if Obama wins?

Debate thoughts before going to bed

1. McCain tried to capture his magic of 2000. Didn't happen. His jokes were received with crickets.

2. At all campaign stops near nuclear power plans, and maybe at every campaign stop, Obama and Biden should bring up this quote from McCain: "Nuclear power. Senator Obama says that it has to be safe or disposable or something like that." Ummm, yeah.

McCain doesn't just want to de-regulate the nuclear energy industry, he wants nuclear plants to be unsafe? It's unclear whether Obama didn't catch it or didn't want to raise it during the debate and give McCain an opportunity to clarify his remarks. According to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, there are 9 in Pennsylvania, 5 in Florida, 5 in North Carolina, 4 plants in Virginia, 3 in Michigan, 3 in Wisconsin, and 2 in Ohio.

3. "Bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran!" McCain walked into that one. Obama used it at the first debate, so I don't know what McCain thought he was doing focusing on judgment. McCain's response: weak references to his military experience, "I was joking with an old veteran friend who joked with me about Iran." Really, here's the joke. Doesn't sound like a casual conversation with an old veteran friend:



4. I also don't understand questioning Obama's Pakistan position. I think it's pretty clear that we will kill terrorists, let alone bin Laden wherever they are, period. By uttering the words "We will kill bin Laden" helps Obama. Do even Republicans understand McCain's position?

5. Speaking of Pakistan, I have noticed that Obama pronounces Pakistan, Iraq, and Iran correctly. "Nuclear," too. And yet he's winning? (Update: tip jar!)

6. McCain's closing remarks weren't explicit, but he was making an appeal based on his experience as a POW. According to CNN's "Uncommitted Ohio Voters," there was no reaction. Either they didn't understand that he was referring to his POW years or they just didn't care.

Move along, there's nothing to see here

I recently saw this Moveon.org ad on TV:



This is the worst ad I've seen in this election cycle. It looks like a teenager put it together on a MacAir over the weekend.

I suppose the the message is that McCain has something to do with some people who had something to do with the financial crisis and supports Bush's $700 billion bailout. To emphasize the point, the figure of $700 billion moves across the screen, Atari 2600-style, across the screen. To emphasize the point even more, the $700 billion figure turns red. Is this a sign of danger? A statement that it's more red ink? A higher level statement that it's red ink borrowed from Red China.

How exactly does this ad help to defeat McCain? Obama is more likely to support the bailout than McCain. It wouldn't surprise me if McCain goes populist by opposing the bailout in order to stir up the race--my least favorite phrase of 2008, "game-changer."

Also, the ad has so...many...words...can't...pay...attention. Jeez! These liberals are too damn cerebral. Can't they just play to the reptile mind of the undecided American voter? Fight or flight, fear and loathing, right and wrong.

The Republicans knew how to tear down Kerry with those Swift Boat ads. They didn't just make Kerry look bad, they destroyed his credibility and the basis for his candidacy. McCain's support of the war and other things he's said and done in public life have more than enough material to bring him down without resorting to the lies of the Swift Boaters. This ad just doesn't do anything to defeat McCain. It was a waste of money.

The Obama people were correct to try to dissuade Democratic donors from supporting outside organization like Moveon. This Politico article puts forth several arguments why the Obama campaign steered Democratic donors away from outside groups: Legal defense against charges of illegal coordination, their ties to the Clintons, a power grab, to ensure his brand of "new politics," and "message discipline." This Moveon ad shows the virtues of message discipline.

Update: So the bailout plan failed today. Since a majority of the Democrats in the House voted for it, I don't understand why Moveon would attack the measure and McCain's apparent support of it. Maybe I missed it, but I still don't know where Obama was on this bill. Since Pelosi indicated in the big White House meeting that Obama would speak for the Democrats, it is presumable that they wouldn't have reached a deal with the White House and congressional Republicans unless they cleared it with Obama. The McCain campaign apparently took credit for the deal before it failed. Oops.

Hobgoblins out in force

If the American public wanted conformity to all previously held positions, it would be Kucinich vs. Paul.

I can't take another minute of blathering about this flip-flop or that flip-flop. Public finance, off-shore drilling, tax cuts, etc. Politicians lie. Even George Bush lies. As Jamie Lee Curtis pointed out in A Fish Called Wanda, even Margaret Thatcher lies!

All successful politicians lie, but the key is what they lie about.

I don't see Obama's supposed flip-flop on public financing of his campaign to be a matter of principle. His position that his army of small donors is another form of public finance is overstated, but he does not take lobbyist, PAC, or Federal contractor money. That's more than any other successful candidate has done to eliminate the appearance of influence by special interests. I won't begrudge Obama's decision to forgo public money. Circumstances--his ability to raise vast amounts of money--changed. He wants to win. Well, duh! Some of stated that it would be political malpractice for Obama to take public financing.

Same goes for McCain on off-shore drilling. The blowhards have barely mentioned the "maverick" John McCain's reversal on off-shore drilling. Drilling off Florida won't do much to lower gas prices, but there's no overriding matter of principle at stake. It's not like he's ever been an environmentalist. His initial position against off-shore drilling was probably to get votes in Florida in 2000. McCain wants votes!

So what do these episodes tell us? Obama wants to win and McCain wants votes. Shocking in an election year.

The blowhards on TV have said that Obama's change contradicts his "new politics" meme. I've been listening to Obama pretty closely, and unyielding commitment to principle hasn't been his calling card. If anything, he has indicated a flexible approach in contrast to Bush's stubborn refusal to acknowledge reality when it flies in the face of ideology. In November, no one except the stuck-in-mud Public Citizen-types will give a damn whether Obama took public money or not. In fact, if you asked the typical low-information voter whether Obama should fund his campaign with contributions or taxpayer money, the likely answer would be contributions with the question, "taxpayer money goes to these guys???"

The only downside to a $500+ million contribution-funded campaign is that the airwaves will be so saturated with Obama ads that the people will turn against him.

Obama and Clinton play chess

Bad weather interfered with my satellite signal, so I didn't watch Clinton's speech, but it seems Clinton gave an extremely ungracious non-concession speech. Can she do more to sabotage Obama's chance in 2008) so she could run in 2012)? The next week will show a lot, but Obama has a real chess match on his hands.

If she forces Obama to ask her to be the VP, she could decline it and make him look like a fool. McCain will then say, "if you can't handle Hillary Clinton, how are you going to handle Ahmadinejad in these direct negotiations of yours?"

If she does accept the offer, the McCain line is just as valid, and then he's got dis-loyalists in his campaign and, hopefully, Administration. She wouldn't be accepting of a ceremonial role--she's be like Cheney with her minions spread throughout the Executive Branch. Yuck!

Finally, if he doesn't offer her the VP position, she could knee-cap him throughout the campaign.

Did you hear that it was reported by Fineman of MSNBC that the Clinton campaign is demanding that if she isn't offered the VP slot, then no woman should?

I am no longer on the Webb for VP bandwagon. I think he's got a lot of baggage, especially on women's rights. Not the sort of signal to send right now. I am thinking that Clark may be a good choice. Since he's allied with the Clintons, he may be acceptable to her.

First move goes to white.

McCain stumbles

A bad few days for McCain:

1) Sugar Momma Cindy won't release her tax returns, ever! Let's see how long that lasts. His campaign receives free, unlimited use of her company's plane because of a loophole in a law that McCain had written, so her wealth is an issue.

2) Arianna says McCain said he didn't vote for George Bush in 2000. I finally gained a little respect for the man, but then he denied it. Let him brag about voting for Bush for the next several months. If I were Obama, I'd use this in a debate.

3) A former lobbyist for the Myanmar junta was tapped by McCain to run the GOP convention. McCain sure does like lobbyists. If lobbyists are the sort of people he chooses to run his campaign, think of the people he's pick for the government.

His campaign hasn't proven itself. McCain didn't really "win" the nomination so much as the other bozo candidates lost. McCain was the last man standing. If these are examples of the deftness of the McCain campaign, I can't wait for the fall season!

Keep on truckin'

I haven't had much time for blogging lately. In order to clear my basement of stuff so that a contractor can finish it, I've been reviewing the evidence of the excess consumerism in my life. Shoot, I haven't played my XBox since I met my wife, so it's got to go. Goodbye DVD and CD cases, but I'm keeping the liner notes for Jethro Tull's "Crest of a Knave"--it's classic. Bye-bye wife's 4S green skis. The Fort Totten Waste Transfer Station--sometimes called the DC dump--will give you a good home.

Speaking of the DC dump, I tried to dispose of certain items in an environmentally responsible way, but failed. Twice a year, the DC government has a household hazardous waste disposal and recycling day. After dropping off non-hazwaste at the dump, we drove out to the special area for the hazwaste disposal, but the street was like a parking lot for about a mile.

"The worst thing would be that, out of frustration, people put this stuff in the regular waste stream."

We did the worst thing. We made a quick u-turn and headed for the dump. Yes, I threw away my copper speaker wires in the normal waste chain. Thankfully, a salvager took it and hauled it away. That is true recycling! We didn't leave anything truly hazardous--like paint--at the dump, so don't be too hard on us.

I am glad that the Mayor is taking remedial action and is making plans for hazwaste drop-offs on the weekends. That's what I like about the Mayor. A problem is identified, potential solutions are identified, and action is taken. When Marion Barry was mayor, problems were identified, no one in government would take responsibility, and nothing would change. Mayor Williams was definitely better, but I don't think he would really care about an issue with such small monetary implications. Mayor Fenty, you are doing a great job. Now improve those schools and fix up Eastern Market and you will become the new Mayor-for-Life.

Speaking of the ill-fated hazwaste drop off, some people waited on line for so long that they almost ran out of gas. Unfortunately, that didn't happen to any of the truckers who protested high gas prices by driving around downtown Washington and Capitol Hill. Of all the protests in DC that I have seen, this was by far the lamest. Okay, gas prices are high, supply is low, demand is high, the dollar is low. So you protest to waste gallons and gallons of it and pollute myneighborhood? I'll remember this, truckers!

This is the trucker platform:

The truckers said they want Congress to issue an immediate cap on gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices. They are demanding a $2 a gallon cap on all of the fuels.

That's workable. While Congress unilaterally caps prices of a global commodity, it might was well move the West Coast closer to the East Coast to make it cheaper to drive cross-country.

Then there's the McCain-Clinton plan to eliminate the gas tax for the summer. Gas taxes pay for roads and transit. Without those taxes, either construction or maintenance stops or we borrow more money from the Chinese to pay for it. Good for Obama for calling out his opponents on this. As an Obama supporter, I would be embarrassed if he took the McCain-Clinton position. Are the Clinton supporters capable of embarrassment at this point? She went on O'Reilly. O'Reilly!

Updated:

"I find it frankly a little offensive that people who don't have to worry about filling up their gas tank or what they buy when they go to the supermarket, think that it's somehow illegitimate to provide relief for the millions and millions of Americans who are on the brink of losing their jobs, unable to keep up with their daily expenses," she said.

Later, in Jeffersonville, Indiana, Clinton said she wanted to put her tax proposal before Congress.

"I believe it would be important to get every member of Congress on record. Do they stand with the hard-pressed Americans who are trying to pay their gas bills at the gas station or do they once again stand with the oil companies?," Clinton asked.

That's our only choice? Ye Gods! This has Bill Clinton's fingerprints all over it. It is reminiscent of Bill Clinton's demagogery over Paul Tsongas's proposal for 50 cent gas tax increase over 10 years in 1992. I was embarrassed, but still drank the aid. My standards have apparently gotten higher, but the Clintons' have not.

CNN's Ballot Bowl Sucks

I've had CNN's "Ballot Bowl" show on all afternoon. So much time, so little insight. I've learned nothing. My wife has fled the room.

Here's a sample.

4:46 PM. Hillary Clinton says she's been creating jobs for years in upstate New York. How many district offices does she have? (Answer, 9 total, 5 of which I could would consider upstate. Thanks, Hillary, for your job creation for upstate New York.)

4:48 PM. Barack Obama says Hillary Clinton voted for the war, like John McCain.

4:50 PM. Commercial break.

Ye Gods!