1. Hillary as Secretary of State. It should happen. It's Hillary's segue to the White House. She'll take Biden's place as the VP candidate in 2012 and then run in 2016. Duh!
2. Auto bailout. No. Bankruptcy could result in terminated pension and health insurance benefits, which is why the unions are pressing for a cash bailout. I'm no economist, but instead of a bailout, the Federal government should insure a greater part of all pension plans that go bust via the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation and use terminated health plans as a clarion call for national universe health insurance. This gives no preference to any particular industry, ends this vicious cycle of bailouts, and fulfills Obama's promises.
3. Pardon Watch. Waiting for the Bush's self-pardon on Jan. 20th.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Predictions so close!
Rounding to the nearest whole number, I nailed the popular vote percentages. I was off by no more than 3 electoral votes. I thought Ron Paul would get a few extra percentage points in Montana and deliver the state to Obama. Nebraska may give one electoral vote to Obama, so I may be just two off. I did think that Missouri, not Indiana, would go to Obama, but each has 11 electoral votes, so it didn't affect my EV prediction. I would also like to add that I pretty much nailed the 2006 election under my nom de plume Auguste Blanqui.
1. Barack the Community Organizer won this election. A Democratic nominee doesn't win North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia without a strong grassroots organization. Sarah Palin mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer, but that experience got him to the White House and sent Palin back to whatever hole she came from.
2. McCain was not doomed to fail just because he was a Republican and the economic crisis. According to the national exit polls, when asked whether McCain would continue Bush's policies, 48% of voters said yes and 48% said no. That's not a bad number for a Republican nominee. McCain lost voters in September when his response to the economic crisis was so erratic, confused, etc. I still say he would have been a real maverick and maybe won the election if he blasted the final bailout bill as a gift to special interests. "Barack's bailout," proof he's a tax-and-spend liberal suckered by the special interests--now that could have been a powerful message.
3. There was not a "John McCain of 2000" and a "John McCain of 2008." They are the same person, one without any principles, only ambition. He all but admitted that in his own book! How can you be in the Senate for over 25 years and not have a domestic policy?
4. I have a poodle for the Obama girls. Take my dog, please!
5. Joe the Plumber was the best poster boy for Republican workin' class support since Dicky Flat.
I am hopeful that some things will get done. Bill Clinton didn't get a lot done because he was too sensitive to criticism from within his cabinet, Congress, and the press. He also didn't lay the groundwork for Congressional support for his more visionary proposals. He thought he could dictate to the Democratic Congress. Obama is more strategic in his actions and doesn't seem to be as sensitive as Bill Clinton. I think he'll be a much better party and national leader.
This nonsense that we are a "center-right" nation is just, well, nonsense. We are a mish-mash of a lots of people with lots of different perspectives. Each few years, some of us vote, most of our votes are counted, and one candidate wins. To the extent that you can come up with an average representing the collective will of the people of the United States, it looks pretty left of center right now.
Obama won a mandate (whatever the heck that means). He earned some political capital in this election, and if he doesn't spend it now, the political bank is going to go bust and Obama will find that his account isn't FDIC-insured. Obama and Congressional Democrats will be better off fulfilling campaign promises than "moderating" their agenda.
1. Barack the Community Organizer won this election. A Democratic nominee doesn't win North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia without a strong grassroots organization. Sarah Palin mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer, but that experience got him to the White House and sent Palin back to whatever hole she came from.
2. McCain was not doomed to fail just because he was a Republican and the economic crisis. According to the national exit polls, when asked whether McCain would continue Bush's policies, 48% of voters said yes and 48% said no. That's not a bad number for a Republican nominee. McCain lost voters in September when his response to the economic crisis was so erratic, confused, etc. I still say he would have been a real maverick and maybe won the election if he blasted the final bailout bill as a gift to special interests. "Barack's bailout," proof he's a tax-and-spend liberal suckered by the special interests--now that could have been a powerful message.
3. There was not a "John McCain of 2000" and a "John McCain of 2008." They are the same person, one without any principles, only ambition. He all but admitted that in his own book! How can you be in the Senate for over 25 years and not have a domestic policy?
4. I have a poodle for the Obama girls. Take my dog, please!
5. Joe the Plumber was the best poster boy for Republican workin' class support since Dicky Flat.
I am hopeful that some things will get done. Bill Clinton didn't get a lot done because he was too sensitive to criticism from within his cabinet, Congress, and the press. He also didn't lay the groundwork for Congressional support for his more visionary proposals. He thought he could dictate to the Democratic Congress. Obama is more strategic in his actions and doesn't seem to be as sensitive as Bill Clinton. I think he'll be a much better party and national leader.
This nonsense that we are a "center-right" nation is just, well, nonsense. We are a mish-mash of a lots of people with lots of different perspectives. Each few years, some of us vote, most of our votes are counted, and one candidate wins. To the extent that you can come up with an average representing the collective will of the people of the United States, it looks pretty left of center right now.
Obama won a mandate (whatever the heck that means). He earned some political capital in this election, and if he doesn't spend it now, the political bank is going to go bust and Obama will find that his account isn't FDIC-insured. Obama and Congressional Democrats will be better off fulfilling campaign promises than "moderating" their agenda.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Predictions
Obama, 53%, 367 electoral votes.
McCain, 46%, 171 EVs.
I anticipate voting lines in important areas to resemble South Africa, 1994. And not just full of black people. I mean just long.
I am also expecting the Obama GOTV effort to swing some toss up states (FL, NC, MO, MT) and keep small leads in other battleground states (OH and PA). I see IN as just too red. I don't want to be greedy.
The state polls are close, but McCain practically has to win them all. Anyhow, that's my fear. Good luck everyone! To you in Virginia, a little rain never hurt anyone.
McCain, 46%, 171 EVs.
I anticipate voting lines in important areas to resemble South Africa, 1994. And not just full of black people. I mean just long.
I am also expecting the Obama GOTV effort to swing some toss up states (FL, NC, MO, MT) and keep small leads in other battleground states (OH and PA). I see IN as just too red. I don't want to be greedy.
The state polls are close, but McCain practically has to win them all. Anyhow, that's my fear. Good luck everyone! To you in Virginia, a little rain never hurt anyone.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Weather.com's very 2004 weather outlook
Weather.com's "battleground forecast" has a lot of good news for turnout. But it's limited to Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Don't they obsessively read Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight? Don't they know that Colorado and Virginia are new battlegrounds on the list? Republican bias? Sheer idiocy?
Anyhow, the forecast for Tuesday in Weather.com's battleground states looks sunny and warm, but Virginia does not look good. Warm, but kind of rainy. The map isn't clear about Northern Virginia, so I tried to find the DC forecast in Weather.com's "Election Countdown State by State Outlook" link.
For whatever reason, there's no page for the District of Columbia. Thanks, Weather.com. Given your inability to know what the battleground states are in this election, you probably don't even know that DC has electoral vote.s Anyhow, the outlook for DC on Tuesday on the real Weather.com shows warm weather with a probability for showers.
This is not good. You better show up at the polls! I'm talking to you, Virginia and Colorado! You had several weeks to get your ass to the polls so I don't want to hear a bunch of whining about a little moisture.
Anyhow, the forecast for Tuesday in Weather.com's battleground states looks sunny and warm, but Virginia does not look good. Warm, but kind of rainy. The map isn't clear about Northern Virginia, so I tried to find the DC forecast in Weather.com's "Election Countdown State by State Outlook" link.
For whatever reason, there's no page for the District of Columbia. Thanks, Weather.com. Given your inability to know what the battleground states are in this election, you probably don't even know that DC has electoral vote.s Anyhow, the outlook for DC on Tuesday on the real Weather.com shows warm weather with a probability for showers.
This is not good. You better show up at the polls! I'm talking to you, Virginia and Colorado! You had several weeks to get your ass to the polls so I don't want to hear a bunch of whining about a little moisture.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
If McCain & Palin win...
I will quit!
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/mccain/1251437,palin-missouri-103008.article
Palin said "Country First" is more than McCain's campaign slogan. "That's going to be printed on every page in the employee handbook" if he's elected, she said.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/mccain/1251437,palin-missouri-103008.article
Israel
I'm so sick of hearing about Israel in this campaign. The devotion to Israel by the Jesus-worshipping folk is driving me crazy! Israel should not be a top issue in this campaign. Are we electing the President of the United States or of the State of Israel? I feel like a bad Jew.
Let's get something perfectly clear: You can criticize Israel and not be an Anti-Semite. Even Israelis criticize Israel!
Let's get something perfectly clear: You can criticize Israel and not be an Anti-Semite. Even Israelis criticize Israel!
Friday, October 24, 2008
Slicing the pie
I've been obsessed with the McCain's campaign to slice-and-dice the American people into good groups characterized as "pro-American" and bad groups characterized as "anti-American." "Real Virginia," "pro-American parts of the country," etc. Meanwhile Obama has a unifying vision, which generally does better in Presidential elections.
The slice-and-dice view of the country has been out there for a long time. It's sometimes called the "paranoid style" of American politics. This view see conspiracies everywhere. It has often been directed to Jews, but now it's characterized by Islamophobia. Are Muslims the new Jews?
George W. Bush's November 6, 2001 address to a joint session of Congress rekindled this spirit and set the Republican Party on a self-destructive path when disagreement over Iraq or other issues is tantamount to treason. Actually, not tantamount to treason, but actual treason. In Bush's 2001 speech, he declared: "Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. (Applause.)"
At the time, I assumed that he meant that other countries had to decide whether they were with us or against us. The Republican Party and the right wing applied it to the United States as well. To them, Americans, too, are either for or against "us."
Now the Democrats look like they're on the verge of controlling Congress and the White House. The hysteria we see is the wingnut freak out that a black socialist terrorist Muslim liberal elitist, all of which are disqualifications for being one of "us," may actually become President. According to the logic of the "with us or against us" crowd, the President will be against us.
What the hell do these folks do if Obama wins?
The slice-and-dice view of the country has been out there for a long time. It's sometimes called the "paranoid style" of American politics. This view see conspiracies everywhere. It has often been directed to Jews, but now it's characterized by Islamophobia. Are Muslims the new Jews?
George W. Bush's November 6, 2001 address to a joint session of Congress rekindled this spirit and set the Republican Party on a self-destructive path when disagreement over Iraq or other issues is tantamount to treason. Actually, not tantamount to treason, but actual treason. In Bush's 2001 speech, he declared: "Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. (Applause.)"
At the time, I assumed that he meant that other countries had to decide whether they were with us or against us. The Republican Party and the right wing applied it to the United States as well. To them, Americans, too, are either for or against "us."
Now the Democrats look like they're on the verge of controlling Congress and the White House. The hysteria we see is the wingnut freak out that a black socialist terrorist Muslim liberal elitist, all of which are disqualifications for being one of "us," may actually become President. According to the logic of the "with us or against us" crowd, the President will be against us.
What the hell do these folks do if Obama wins?
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