Sunday, November 16, 2008

Giants update

The loss in Cleveland in October was a good loss for the Giants--on the road, against a non-conference opponent, where nothing worked. The offense and defensive lines had been dominant up to that game, and both were terrible in Cleveland.

Since then, the line play as been very good, especially on the offensive side. Today they made the Ravens defensive line look like the Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers. That is, sad. Another 200+ yard night for the "Earth, Wind, and Fire" running back trio.

To complete the full list of elements, let's call the defense "Water" because no offense catches fire against them. The line is sack-happy and run-stopping, and the secondary is making interceptions. The linebacker corps is the weakest part of the defense, but no one has seriously burned them.

Yes, Eli Manning is not sparkling. Another sub-200 yard performance and a dumb interception. However, when your offense runs for over 200 yards per game, you're not asking your quarterback to light it up. He is managing the game well, using the hard count expertly. At one point, he drew the Ravens off-sides on two consecutive plays, turning a 3rd and 7 into a first down. I would like to see him run for a first down every once in a while to keep the opposing LBs guessing, but I'm not complaining.

The team is now 9-1. With Dallas beating Washington tonight, the Giants need, at most, three more wins to go to the playoffs. People are talking about how tough the Giants schedule is for the rest of the season. Absent major injuries (knock on wood), I see the Giants going 14-2. They may lose either to Dallas or Washington on the road, but not to both.

The worst part of the Sunday football that I saw today was a complete abuse of the replay system in Pittsburgh. On the last play of the game, San Diego tried lateraling to keep the play alive. Palumalu broke up the play and went into the end zone for an apparent touchdown as time expired. Yay! Game over! Time for the 60 Minutes interview with Obama. But no, the officials actually needed to review the play to determine whether the first lateral was actually a forward lateral, which, if called, would have ended the play and negated the touchdown. So the officials keep the players on the sidelines to review the play. After a few minutes of confusion on the field, the officials determined that it was a forward lateral and therefore no touchdown.

The game was over. The players were pissed off. Tomlinson looked like he could have ripped off someone's head. Just let them walk off the field.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Three transition thoughts

1. Hillary as Secretary of State. It should happen. It's Hillary's segue to the White House. She'll take Biden's place as the VP candidate in 2012 and then run in 2016. Duh!

2. Auto bailout. No. Bankruptcy could result in terminated pension and health insurance benefits, which is why the unions are pressing for a cash bailout. I'm no economist, but instead of a bailout, the Federal government should insure a greater part of all pension plans that go bust via the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation and use terminated health plans as a clarion call for national universe health insurance. This gives no preference to any particular industry, ends this vicious cycle of bailouts, and fulfills Obama's promises.

3. Pardon Watch. Waiting for the Bush's self-pardon on Jan. 20th.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Predictions so close!

Rounding to the nearest whole number, I nailed the popular vote percentages. I was off by no more than 3 electoral votes. I thought Ron Paul would get a few extra percentage points in Montana and deliver the state to Obama. Nebraska may give one electoral vote to Obama, so I may be just two off. I did think that Missouri, not Indiana, would go to Obama, but each has 11 electoral votes, so it didn't affect my EV prediction. I would also like to add that I pretty much nailed the 2006 election under my nom de plume Auguste Blanqui.

1. Barack the Community Organizer won this election. A Democratic nominee doesn't win North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia without a strong grassroots organization. Sarah Palin mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer, but that experience got him to the White House and sent Palin back to whatever hole she came from.

2. McCain was not doomed to fail just because he was a Republican and the economic crisis. According to the national exit polls, when asked whether McCain would continue Bush's policies, 48% of voters said yes and 48% said no. That's not a bad number for a Republican nominee. McCain lost voters in September when his response to the economic crisis was so erratic, confused, etc. I still say he would have been a real maverick and maybe won the election if he blasted the final bailout bill as a gift to special interests. "Barack's bailout," proof he's a tax-and-spend liberal suckered by the special interests--now that could have been a powerful message.

3. There was not a "John McCain of 2000" and a "John McCain of 2008." They are the same person, one without any principles, only ambition. He all but admitted that in his own book! How can you be in the Senate for over 25 years and not have a domestic policy?

4. I have a poodle for the Obama girls. Take my dog, please!

5. Joe the Plumber was the best poster boy for Republican workin' class support since Dicky Flat.

I am hopeful that some things will get done. Bill Clinton didn't get a lot done because he was too sensitive to criticism from within his cabinet, Congress, and the press. He also didn't lay the groundwork for Congressional support for his more visionary proposals. He thought he could dictate to the Democratic Congress. Obama is more strategic in his actions and doesn't seem to be as sensitive as Bill Clinton. I think he'll be a much better party and national leader.

This nonsense that we are a "center-right" nation is just, well, nonsense. We are a mish-mash of a lots of people with lots of different perspectives. Each few years, some of us vote, most of our votes are counted, and one candidate wins. To the extent that you can come up with an average representing the collective will of the people of the United States, it looks pretty left of center right now.

Obama won a mandate (whatever the heck that means). He earned some political capital in this election, and if he doesn't spend it now, the political bank is going to go bust and Obama will find that his account isn't FDIC-insured. Obama and Congressional Democrats will be better off fulfilling campaign promises than "moderating" their agenda.

Monday, November 3, 2008


Obama, 53%, 367 electoral votes.
McCain, 46%, 171 EVs.

I anticipate voting lines in important areas to resemble South Africa, 1994. And not just full of black people. I mean just long.

I am also expecting the Obama GOTV effort to swing some toss up states (FL, NC, MO, MT) and keep small leads in other battleground states (OH and PA). I see IN as just too red. I don't want to be greedy.

The state polls are close, but McCain practically has to win them all. Anyhow, that's my fear. Good luck everyone! To you in Virginia, a little rain never hurt anyone.

Sunday, November 2, 2008's very 2004 weather outlook's "battleground forecast" has a lot of good news for turnout. But it's limited to Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Don't they obsessively read and fivethirtyeight? Don't they know that Colorado and Virginia are new battlegrounds on the list? Republican bias? Sheer idiocy?

Anyhow, the forecast for Tuesday in's battleground states looks sunny and warm, but Virginia does not look good. Warm, but kind of rainy. The map isn't clear about Northern Virginia, so I tried to find the DC forecast in's "Election Countdown State by State Outlook" link.

For whatever reason, there's no page for the District of Columbia. Thanks, Given your inability to know what the battleground states are in this election, you probably don't even know that DC has electoral vote.s Anyhow, the outlook for DC on Tuesday on the real shows warm weather with a probability for showers.

This is not good. You better show up at the polls! I'm talking to you, Virginia and Colorado! You had several weeks to get your ass to the polls so I don't want to hear a bunch of whining about a little moisture.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

If McCain & Palin win...

I will quit!

Palin said "Country First" is more than McCain's campaign slogan. "That's going to be printed on every page in the employee handbook" if he's elected, she said.,palin-missouri-103008.article